Unpacking The Invasion of Ukraine

The last twenty four hours have led to a lot of fear spreading about what possibilities could come from the current push by Russia into Ukraine. The first large scale war in Europe since the Yugoslavian conflicts in the 90s and arguably the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War will obviously come with a significant feeling of uncertainty and fear, however there are also significant unfounded worries that are circulating that need dispelling. This article will lay out the situation as it stands as of the time of writing from a broad picture view and will dispel some myths that are currently circulating especially around social media.

The first piece of the puzzle that needs to be understood is the view from the Kremlin and of Vladimir Putin. The best way to understand this is to look at the political geography of central Europe as is shown in the map below.

The combination of the borders of Belarus and Ukraine make up the majority of Russia’s border with Europe. To Russia this is seen as a severe security risk as they see that this is the way that Napoleon and Hitler both invaded Russia in the past and as such they see NATO as the next potential adversary to do so. Prior to 2014 the Ukrainian government was favorable to Russia’s interests in the way that the Lukashenko government is in Belarus currently. However, in February 2014 there were popular uprisings across Ukraine known as the Maidan Revolution. This caused President Yanukovych to flee to Russia. Democratic reforms were put in place after this and these included closer integration with the West such as joining the EU. Russia saw this as a move toward NATO membership. The potential of Western troops operating on Russia’s border would not be tolerated by the Kremlin and as such they took action before this could happen. Russia decided to annex Crimea which is majority ethnically Russian and also contains the strategically important naval base at Sevastopol which is key to control over the Black Sea. It also began to start arming rebel groups that had formed in Ukraine’s Donbass region. These areas broke off into two self proclaimed break away states known as The Peoples Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Despite maintaining that these regions were autonomous, Russian troops were spotted on multiple occasions in the region and were reported to be training and commanding the rebel groups as well as taking part in direct combat.

This is the situation that Ukraine has faced from 2014 to 2022. As of summer 2021 Russian troops began to build up along the Russo-Ukrainian border and as of two months ago credible intelligence reports began to appear from Western intelligence agencies of a planned invasion. Despite diplomatic talks as of the 23rd of February Moscow decided to officially recognize The Peoples Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Under the pretext of defending these two break away states Russia began to move troops into those regions. The night after Russia began to send troops through the border into Ukraine from all angles surrounding the nation as seen below.

As well as those border crossings being crossed many explosions were reported in many cities across the country and the VDV (Russian paratroopers) were airlifted into an airport near Kyiv to take and hold it. It seems that most of the reported explosions are either airstrikes, artillery or cruise missiles that have been used to target Ukrainian military installations or carrying out SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) operations. Russian air attacks have thankfully been uncharacteristically targeted. Despite having civilian casualties it seems that Russia is not using the playbook that it used in Syria and Chechnya of indiscriminate bombing or shelling. It is not fully clear exactly what Moscow is aiming to do with this invasion but it is more than likely that it is trying to enact regime change and return Ukraine back to its pre-2014 status quo.

It is highly unlikely that Russia will continue a push past Ukraine if it does take the whole of the country. This is for two reasons. The first of these is that logistically to try and push into Romania, Poland or the Baltic states after a military campaign in Ukraine would not be feasible without a significant amount of time to rebuild from losses sustained in combat. The second reason is NATO article 5. NATO article 5 is NATOs collective defense article and as such states that an attack on one NATO nation is an attack on all and as such every member of the alliance has a responsibility to come to that members defense. This has only ever been triggered once in response to the attacks on September 11th 2001 by Al Qaeda on the United States. Putin may be acting aggressively but he has a tendency to act in a strategically calculated manner. This means that even when he is taking risks he makes sure that the pros outweigh the cons for what he is doing. The invasion that is currently happening, is only happening because Putin believes that the benefits outweigh the costs. Picking a toe to toe battle with the West would be a battle he could not win even if a nuclear exchange does not happen and he is aware of this. However he will continue to snap at the Wests toes just enough to make gains but not enough to warrant a large retaliation.

The second perspective that needs to be understood is that of the West. NATO expansion has been continuing since the fall of the Soviet Union as nations that were part of the Warsaw Pact wanted to distance themselves from Russian influence after the Communist period. Ukraine is the only country in the post-Soviet space that has not been welcomed in with open arms to NATO despite being the country that needed its protections the most. The issue that stood in the way of Ukraine was the previously mentioned occupied territories that Russia took control of in 2014. The international community still recognizes that territory as being Ukrainian sovereign soil as such this would open NATO up to a triggering of article 5 as soon as Ukraine joined bringing all of the West into a hot war with Russia. The other option was to recognize these two regions as officially Russian territory but the international community did not want to legitimize unilateral land grabs.

Without an article 5 mandate there is no way that the West is going to risk sending troops in to protect Ukraine as such they have a few options left that it will use. The first of these is the deploying of NATO troops into the countries bordering Ukraine such as Poland to deter any potential spill over that may come from this conflict. The second way NATO is handling this crisis is diplomacy. Despite it not working up until this point Western leaders and Ukraine have both stated that diplomatic options are still on the table. The third way has been to arm Ukraine. This has some limited positives but overall there is not much that can be done to turn the tide of the war with this. The US and the UK have been sending MANPADs (Man Portable Air Defense) systems and ATGMs (Anti-Tank Guided Missiles) such as Javelins and Stingers. These have been making a severe dent in Russia’s air power and its armored vehicles but unfortunately it seems as if it is just something that will slow down an advance but will not repel it. The last option that they have is sanctions. This is seen by the West as being its best weapon to use against Russia. However to quote Dr Stephen Kotkin Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton “We bomb the Middle East because we can, we sanction Russia because we cant bomb them and we don’t do anything about China because we cant do either of those”. Sanctions are the only weapon that the West has against Russia. It is obvious though that Putin has made the calculation that he can weather the storm. Some of the sanctions will be more effective than others. Taking the country off the SWIFT banking system will be a large hit to Russia’s economy that has already been hit hard after the ruble collapsed after the invasion. Other sanctions such as stopping buying Russian oil and natural gas more than likely will not hit Russia as hard. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is in Moscow currently to discuss the possibility of a pipeline that would divert the liquified natural gas that was meant for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to South Asia instead and there is also the possibility that China may make up some of the shortfalls that will come from Europe pulling out of these markets.

As should be clear by this stage despite being a severe breach of international law and norms as well as being a horrific aggression against Ukraine this conflict is highly unlikely to spiral into World War 3 despite what your favorite social media influencer has to say about it. NATO has no ability or will to challenge Russia in a one on one conflict as despite seeing this aggression as a massive violation of an allies sovereignty it does not warrant risking a nuclear exchange between two great powers. Russia on the other hand is careful not to bite off more than they can chew despite the way it may appear on the surface and as such they are not going to risk conflict with NATO. As it stands it is already a tragic situation as a massive war and all that comes with that wages in the heart of Europe however fearmongering about how it will come to the worst scenario that was prepared for in the darkest days of the Cold War is not necessary.

As it stands to continued flow of information that is coming out of the conflict region is hard to filter through and separate what is fact, what is fiction and what is spin but in the next few days and weeks exactly what happened should start to come to light and as such there will be more of an ability to comment on it but there is still a lot to be gleamed from what has happened up until this point. This understanding sheds light on the current situation even if the conflict lines themselves are murky as we speak.