Since the invasion of Ukraine many observers have been focusing on the potential of a conflict happening between China and Taiwan. The last week has seen tensions flaring up as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has made an official state visit to Taiwan. As I have previously argued we are entering a new era of great power competition and this year is proving it. Both regions of the world where tension has been expected for years are now seeing it. Logistically the West cannot deal with two simultaneous wars on either side of the world and support their democratic allies. As such this piece seeks to look at what is currently going on in Taiwan, the visit of Nancy Pelosi and the dangers of conflict in the region.
What is Taiwan?
The official name for Taiwan is the Republic of China (ROC) in comparison to mainland China that is governed by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) which is run by the Chinese Communist Party the CCP. The difference between these two states comes from the Chinese civil war that was fought between the Nationalists and Communists. The conflict would end in 1951 with the Nationalists being driven off the mainland and fleeing to the island of Taiwan. Both nations have since this point have maintained that they are the legitimate government of China. From 1951 to 1979 the international community would recognize Taiwan as the legitimate government, and it would take China’s UN seat.
The balance of power would begin to shift in 1972 when Nixon would visit China and normalize relations with a nation that was similar to North Korea today. The US thought that the normalization of trade relations would create a middle class in China which would in turn lead to liberal reforms and the fall of Communism in the country. This decision was also taken to leverage the competition between China and the USSR in the wake of the 1960 Sino-Soviet split. By the late 70s the Vietnam war had ended and it would lead to the US and China to support the Mujaheddin in the Soviet-Afghan War.
This would leave Taiwan out in the cold. Due to both nations claiming to be the official government of China both nations cannot be simultaneously recognized. The combination of normalization of relations with China in the 70s and the market reforms of Deng Xiaoping have rocketed China’s economy to the second highest in the world. This combined with the current Wolf Warrior diplomacy of the Xi administration means that if a nation wants to trade with China, they cannot officially recognize Taiwan. Despite this Taiwan has embassies in different nations around the world such as the one in Dublin known as the “Taipei Representative Office in Ireland”. It also has its own formidable economy being the foremost producer of microchips and semiconductors in the world. In the 90s Taiwan would hold its first elections and since this point it has been a liberal democratic nation joining the West.
The policy of the West especially the United States has been that it is independent despite not officially recognizing this independence to retain diplomatic relations with China. It has used a concept known as strategic ambiguity when it comes to the question of if it would defend Taiwan. This is where a nation deliberately leaves the question open as to what it would do in a situation to force an opposing nation to have to consider the possibility of an intervention in the case of hostilities while simultaneously not reaping the political fallout from having a definitive stance on the issue. China on the other hand sees this as a purely internal matter and Taiwan is like other parts of the country that need to be suppressed to maintain the integrity of the nation such as Hong Kong, Tibet, and the Uighurs in Xinjiang.
Rhetoric in recent years has become more bellicose with many people believing that one of the largest priorities for Xi is to reintegrate Taiwan. Many economists are also predicting that China may see economic collapse over the next while. This compounds the danger of an invasion as autocratic regimes will often carry out offensive operations overseas to distract from domestic issues such as the Argentinian invasion of the Falklands. In the US the rhetoric has also increased with the now bi-partisan scepticism over China that began under the Trump administration. Biden has said that he has seen the next challenge to the world being the differences between autocracy and democracy and as such Taiwan is seen as an important democratic ally. Surprisingly the Biden administration has been more hawkish when it comes to Taiwan with Biden seeming to abandon strategic ambiguity for a more direct approach, but this would be walked back by others in the administration as gaffes.
Chinese Naval Strategy and the Potential of an Invasion
Since the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996 China has been focused on achieving naval dominance in the Pacific. China currently only has a green water navy. This is a term used to describe a navy that can only project power in a nation’s surrounding area in comparison to a blue water navy that can project global power. As such China has plans to expand its naval influence. By 2030 China wants to see control of the First Island Chain (seen below) and the Second Island Chain by 2050. China is not just focusing on naval power to achieve this goal, but they have also created a large range of missiles that can reach up to 5,500 kilometres off China’s shores.
This puts Taiwan in a precarious position. Complete naval dominance of this region would be vital for an invasion of Taiwan. Control of Taiwan is also vitally important from a strategic perspective for China to push its influence out to the Second Island Chain. However, this would not make this a done deal. As Russia is learning in Ukraine offensive operations are exceedingly difficult and this in the case of Taiwan is compounded by the difficulty of amphibious assaults. The last high profile amphibious invasion happened in the Korean war at the Battle of Incheon in 1950. Things have significantly changed since then. Anti-ship missiles are a game changer and force ships much further offshore making Infantry Fighting Vehicles, landing carriers and helicopters to have to make long dangerous journeys to the coast.
Control of the sea does also not necessarily translate to control of the skies. Taiwan operates a fleet of US built F-16s that could reach out and do significant damage with over the horizon attacks on ships and landing troops as they have the ability to fire harpoon anti-ship missiles. China however does have an advantage that Taiwan is so close that it can launch attacks from airfields in China as well as off its aircraft carriers. China has a technologically superior air force to Russia with it fielding 5th generation fighters such as the J20 but even still the war in Ukraine has taught us not to make assumptions on the ability of nations to gain air superiority. This means that if China wants to invade it is going to face harassing attacks from Taiwanese fighters even if the US does not step in.
As landing troops come closer to shore this opens them up to attacks from MANPADs and ATGMs that could make a significant dent in Chinese amphibious and airborne forces. Once reaching the shore this would involve fighting a contested battle to establish a beach head. If all of this can be achieved, it would still involve fighting in either dense urban environments or mountains two of the most difficult forms of terrain for an attacker. Ukraine on the other hand is perfect for invasion from a geographic perspective and even still Russia has faced massive difficulties in its fight in Ukraine. China may have more military spending and technology but unlike Russia the Chinese army has not seen large scale combat experience since the Sino-Vietnamese war of 1979 and as such have been untested. Even with the will to invade it is going to be an extremely challenging military campaign to conduct.
Pelosi Visit
The US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi would visit Taiwan on the 2nd of August. This visit was done as she was visiting the Asia Pacific and decided to show the US support for Taiwan. This was not taken as a good thing by all of the US government and although not denouncing Pelosi the executive branch practically washed their hands of her. Even commentators such as Historian Neil Ferguson who is usually hawkish on China would say that he was sceptical of the visit on a podcast ran by Stanford’s Hoover Institution. The Chinese response was very swift. A news commentator working for Chinese State Media would call for Pelosi’s plane to be shot down and claimed that it was an act of war on Twitter (seen below)
As with the last time that a US Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan in 1997, China would also begin to conduct military exercises to threaten Taiwan. Over the week China would launch dozens of missiles into the sea near Taiwan as well as flying over one hundred aircraft, along with submarines, aircraft carriers and destroyers to intimidate Taiwan and the US. The Economist would state that this makes the 1995-1996 Taiwan strait crisis look like child’s play as only about six missiles were fired into the strait at this time. It would look like China is taking this extremely seriously, but it still stands that it may be exceedingly difficult to actually conduct an invasion and even if the will is there it will need months of preparation to conduct as we saw with the build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border from August 2021 to February 2022.
Conclusion
The Pelosi visit has signalled one of the highest points of tension in recent years and as such it may signal a larger shift in the Asia Pacific but at the same time beyond the public remarks China has watched the Western response to the war in Ukraine and realizes that the West is not as divided as it had once seemed and as such geopolitical and domestic considerations will all be at play if it decides to carry out an invasion.